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Wall Street expects a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when Gray Television (GTN) reports results for the quarter ended June 2020. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company’s earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these NASDAQ: GRAY at https://www.webull.com/quote/nasdaq-gray estimates.
The report shows good results.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 6, 2020, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management’s discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it’s worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This broadcast television company is expected to post a quarterly loss of $0.08 per share in its upcoming report, representing a year-over-year change of -125.8%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Price, Consensus, and EPS Surprise
Estimate revisions ahead of a company’s earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model — the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model’s predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
Research shows a positive surprise.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold). The research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise, nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank increases Earnings ESP’s predictive power.
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help several NASDAQ: GRAY stocks gain despite an earnings miss. You can check more stocks like NASDAQ: SFET at https://www.webull.com/quote/nasdaq-sfet before investing.
Disclaimer: The analysis information is for reference only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.